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There will be a market crash of a combined magnitude (perhaps over a few days) of around 10%.

Created by marquisdetrade on 2009-04-30; known on 2009-06-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.

  • marquisdetrade estimated 90% on 2009-04-30
  • marquisdetrade changed the deadline from “on 2009-06-30” and changed their prediction from “There will be a market crash of a sustained magnitude of around 10%.” on 2009-04-30
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2010-07-29.