“The Chicago Spire to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• gwern estimated 0% on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “apparently outright cancelled: https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Chicago_Spire#Cancellation” on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=674138 non-trading” on 2011-08-14
• PseudonymousUser estimated 1% on 2011-08-14
• Nic_Smith estimated 1% and said “Alas, as much as I’d have liked to see it, no. Maybe next decade…” on 2011-08-14
• Nic_Smith estimated 0% and said “Almost impossible at this point.” on 2011-11-27
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-31.