“The Chicago Spire to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

• gwern estimated 1% on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=674139 10%” on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “see previous 2011 contract for why even 1% may be generous” on 2011-08-14
• Nic_Smith estimated 1% on 2011-11-27
• gwern said “intrade still 10% on next to no trade volume (another example of intrade failing on long-term shorting?)” on 2011-11-27
• Nic_Smith   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-01.
• Nic_Smith   judged this prediction unknown on 2012-01-01.
• Qiaochu estimated 0% on 2012-11-29
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-12-31.