“The Chicago Spire to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-12-31.

• gwern estimated 1% on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=674140 non-trading” on 2011-08-14
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-12-31.