“The Freedom Tower to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

• gwern estimated 2% on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=674135 non-trading” on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “current estimates, end of 2013: https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Freedom_Tower#Estimated_completion_and_cost” on 2011-08-14
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-12-31.