“Bird Flu (H5N1) to be confirmed in the USA before midnight ET on 30 Sep 2011”

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-30.

• gwern estimated 1% on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=728606 non-trading” on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “http://www.flu.gov/individualfamily/about/h5n1/index.html says not yet in the USA” on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “by 30 December 2011: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/3049” on 2011-08-14
• Laurent Bossavit said “tags: usa, health” on 2011-09-04
• fergus estimated 1% on 2011-09-16
• gwern said “http://www.flu.gov/individualfamily/about/h5n1/index.html says never detected in the USA, so marking wrong” on 2011-09-30
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-09-30.