“Bird Flu (H5N1) to be confirmed in the USA before midnight ET on 30 Dec 2011”

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-30.

• gwern estimated 2% on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=728607 5.1% (but not really trading)” on 2011-08-14
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-30.