“Magnitude 8.0 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• gwern estimated 20% on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=747600 69.9% (rules specifically excludes the 11 March 2011 quake)” on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “not sure why intrade is so high. the chart indicates the price has been volatile around a clear average around 50%” on 2011-08-14
• Ken estimated 10% on 2011-09-10
• Sophronius estimated 35% and said “Those happen about once a year IIRC.” on 2011-10-09
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 5% on 2011-12-26
• faws estimated 1% on 2011-12-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 1% on 2011-12-26
• PseudonymousUser said “http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/year/eqstats.php” on 2011-12-26
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-31.