“Magnitude 9.0 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011”

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• gwern estimated 5% on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=747602 9.6%” on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “is it really consistent to price a 8.0 quake at 70% and a 9.0 quake at 9%? admittedly the 9.0 is 10x stronger by definition but do quakes follow such a log probability?” on 2011-08-14
• Ken estimated 2% on 2011-09-10
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 5% on 2011-12-26
• faws estimated 0% on 2011-12-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% and said “http://geology.geoscienceworld.org/content/36/3/263.abstract” on 2011-12-26
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-31.