“Hamas accepts Israel's right to exist before midnight ET on 30 Sep 2011” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-30.

• gwern estimated 1% on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=728599 non-trading” on 2011-08-14
• JoshuaZ estimated 2% on 2011-08-15
• Laurent Bossavit said “tags: international, politics” on 2011-09-04
• Laurent Bossavit said “tags: international, politics” on 2011-09-04
• fergus estimated 1% on 2011-09-05
• Ken estimated 0% on 2011-09-10
• Robert Kosten estimated 1% on 2011-09-11
• faws estimated 0% on 2011-09-23
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-09-30.