“Hamas accepts Israel's right to exist before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• gwern estimated 2% on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=728598 non-trading” on 2011-08-14
• chemotaxis101 estimated 3% on 2011-11-05
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 5% on 2011-12-26
• faws estimated 0% on 2011-12-26
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-31.