“An internationally recognised Palestinian state to be established before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• gwern estimated 10% on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=735837 15% (light volume)” on 2011-08-14
• chemotaxis101 estimated 5% on 2011-11-05
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-31.