“An internationally recognised Palestinian state to be established before midnight ET 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.

• gwern estimated 14% on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=735839 non-trading” on 2011-08-14
• PseudonymousUser said “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_the_State_of_Palestine” on 2013-12-31
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-12-31.