“United States to conduct overt military action against North Korea before midnight ET on 30 Sep 2011” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-30.

• gwern estimated 1% on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=728602 1%” on 2011-08-14
• Laurent Bossavit said “tags: usa, politics, military” on 2011-09-04
• Robert Kosten estimated 5% on 2011-09-11
• JoshuaZ estimated 2% on 2011-09-11
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-09-30.