“United States to conduct overt military action against North Korea before midnight ET on 30 Jun 2012” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-06-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-06-30.

• gwern estimated 5% on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=750351 non-trading” on 2011-08-14
• Michael Stevens estimated 5% on 2012-06-11
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-06-30.