“United States to conduct overt military action against North Korea before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.

• gwern estimated 7% on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=750352 non-trading” on 2011-08-14
• red_goose   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-08-19.
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-08-21.
• JoshuaZ said “red, how can you know this before the date?” on 2011-08-21
• Emanuel Rylke estimated 2% on 2012-04-25
• RandomThinker estimated 2% on 2012-04-25
• JoshuaZ estimated 10% on 2012-04-25
• Qiaochu estimated 1% on 2012-11-15
• Emanuel Rylke   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-12-31.