“Bird Flu (H5N1) to be confirmed in the USA before midnight ET on 30 Dec 2011” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-30.

• gwern estimated 2% on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=728607 5.1%” on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “by 30 September 2011: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/3036” on 2011-08-14
• fergus estimated 1% on 2011-09-16
• JoshuaZ estimated 3% on 2011-09-16
• gwern said “intrade down to 1.4%. I haven’t heard anything either; marking wrong” on 2011-12-30
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-30.