“China to conduct overt military action against Taiwan before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• gwern estimated 3% on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=694846 3.4%” on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “china has nothing to gain by any overt clash, unlike north korea” on 2011-08-14
• JoshuaZ estimated 4% on 2011-08-15
• chemotaxis101 estimated 3% on 2011-11-05
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 0% on 2011-12-26
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-31.