“China to conduct overt military action against Taiwan before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-31.

• gwern estimated 4% on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=694847 20%” on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “20% is on crack! how does it go from 3% for 2011 and to 20% for 2012? there’s a 17% chance China will attack Taiwan during 2012? get real” on 2011-08-14
• JoshuaZ estimated 8% and said “Wow. If I didn’t live in the US this would be so ripe for the picking on intrade. ” on 2011-08-15
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-12-31.