“Magnitude 8.0 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• gwern estimated 50% on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=747600 69.9%” on 2011-08-14
• JoshuaZ estimated 65% on 2011-08-15
• fergus estimated 20% on 2011-08-18
• fergus estimated 10% on 2011-09-13
• Porejide estimated 19% and said “87 in the past 111 years (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/year/mag8/magnitude8_1900_date.php)), around one fourth of a year left” on 2011-10-08
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-31.