“Magnitude 9.0 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• gwern estimated 8% on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=747602 9.6%” on 2011-08-14
• JoshuaZ estimated 11% on 2011-08-15
• fergus estimated 1% on 2011-08-18
• mat33 estimated 10% on 2011-10-13
• gwern said “remember, intrade rules specifically excluded the Japan earthquake. no other >8.0s, so all these are wrong” on 2011-12-31
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-31.