“Any country currently using the Euro to announce their intention to drop it midnight ET 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

• gwern estimated 30% on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=713737 30%” on 2011-08-14
• red_goose estimated 20% and said “The only countries willing to drop it are the ones who need to bailout the rest. That would be Germany and … Germany.” on 2011-08-19
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 46% on 2011-11-06
• dhoe estimated 5% on 2012-09-13
• Qiaochu estimated 5% on 2012-11-10
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-12-31.