“Any country currently using the Euro to announce their intention to drop it midnight ET 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.

• gwern estimated 45% on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=713736 53%” on 2011-08-14
• Emanuel Rylke estimated 10% on 2013-03-31
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-12-31.