“Any country currently using the Euro to announce their intention to drop it midnight ET 31 Dec 2014” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-12-31.

• gwern estimated 55% on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=713578 59%” on 2011-08-14
• dhoe estimated 20% and said “The Euro is way too convenient a place to dump unpopular policy decisions.” on 2011-12-05
• Emanuel Rylke estimated 15% on 2013-03-31
• RandomThinker estimated 30% and said “Cyprus!” on 2013-04-01
• kuudes estimated 5% on 2014-10-27
• qznc estimated 1% on 2014-12-03
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-12-31.