“Cuba to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

• gwern estimated 4% on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=744817 non-trading” on 2011-08-14
• Qiaochu estimated 1% on 2012-11-19
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2012-11-20
• gwern said “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_Sponsors_of_Terrorism#Countries_currently_on_the_list cuba still on it, marking wrong” on 2012-12-31
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-12-31.