“Iran to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
- gwern estimated 3% on 2011-08-14
- gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=744819 5.5%” on 2011-08-14
- JoshuaZ estimated 2% on 2011-08-15
- mat33 estimated 5% on 2011-10-13
- gwern judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-31.
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