“Iran to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• gwern estimated 3% on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=744819 5.5%” on 2011-08-14
• JoshuaZ estimated 2% on 2011-08-15
• mat33 estimated 5% on 2011-10-13
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-31.