“Iran to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-31.

• gwern estimated 4% on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=744820 nontrading” on 2011-08-14
• JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2011-08-15
• Qiaochu estimated 1% on 2012-11-24
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-12-31.