“Syria to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade
- gwern estimated 1% on 2011-08-14
- gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=744823 non-trading” on 2011-08-14
- gwern said “the only way syria is getting off the list after recent events is if the government is replaced entirely, in which case I don’t consider myself morally wrong on these predictions…” on 2011-08-14
- JoshuaZ estimated 10% on 2011-08-15
- JoshuaZ judged this prediction wrong on 2012-12-31.
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