“Syria to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.

• gwern estimated 1% on 2011-08-14
• JoshuaZ estimated 20% on 2011-08-15
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-12-31.