“Sudan to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.

• gwern estimated 12% on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=744827 nontrading” on 2011-08-14
• JoshuaZ estimated 80% on 2011-08-15
• JoshuaZ estimated 20% and said “Oops” on 2011-08-15
• PseudonymousUser said “Still listed on http://www.state.gov/j/ct/list/c14151.htm” on 2013-12-31
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-12-31.