“Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• gwern estimated 0% on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=683803 11%” on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “oh intrade you’re such a card” on 2011-08-14
• PseudonymousUser estimated 1% on 2011-08-14
• Nic_Smith estimated 1% on 2011-08-15
• JoshuaZ estimated 2% and said “Given their history and recent events? Seems unlikely. ” on 2011-08-15
• fergus estimated 1% on 2011-08-19
• anonym estimated 2% on 2011-08-23
• Jach estimated 99% on 2011-08-26
• JoshuaZ said “Jach, did you mean to estimate against? ” on 2011-08-26
• Serge estimated 8% on 2011-09-01
• Ken estimated 1% on 2011-09-10
• gimpf estimated 98% on 2011-09-13
• mat33 estimated 10% on 2011-10-13
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 0% on 2011-10-14
• chemotaxis101 estimated 2% on 2011-11-05
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2011-11-29
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-31.