“Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-31.

• gwern estimated 5% on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=683804 15%” on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “oh stop you kidder you’re killing me!” on 2011-08-14
• PseudonymousUser estimated 3% on 2011-08-14
• Nic_Smith estimated 1% on 2011-08-15
• JoshuaZ estimated 3% on 2011-08-15
• Snarkyxanf estimated 1% on 2011-08-18
• Qiaochu estimated 0% on 2012-11-15
• kiba estimated 0% on 2012-11-25
• Tuxedage estimated 1% on 2012-12-28
• darkdaemon estimated 0% on 2012-12-31
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-12-31.