“Rebekah Brooks to be charged with any criminal offence before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• gwern estimated 30% on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=750506 25%” on 2011-08-14
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 20% on 2011-12-26
• gwern said “intrade at 0.2%, nothing in WP https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rebekah_Brooks#Arrest or google news. marking wrong.” on 2011-12-31
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-31.