“Andy Coulson to be charged with any criminal offence before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• gwern estimated 10% on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=750507 nontrading” on 2011-08-14
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 50% on 2011-12-26
• gwern said “still non-trading; like rebekah, silence in WP so marking wrong” on 2011-12-31
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-31.
• gwern said “see also http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2011/dec/21/andy-coulson-phone-hacking-legal-fees – legal charges still potential” on 2011-12-31