“Dec 2011 unemployment rate to be 9.4% or higher” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-01-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-07.

• gwern estimated 20% on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=745011 16%” on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “see no real reason for optimism, and we’re already at 9.2% or so” on 2011-08-14
• PseudonymousUser estimated 25% on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “Intrade expired at 0; marking wrong” on 2012-01-07
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-07.