“125 or more US banks to fail during 2011” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-01-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-03.

• gwern estimated 1% on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=745104 5%” on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “currently only 63 banks have failed in 2011: see http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html unlikely it will more than double in the few months left” on 2011-08-14
• JoshuaZ estimated 2% on 2011-08-15
• gwern said “my final count on that page is 93 banks failed in 2011. marking wrong (intrade agrees, expired at 0).” on 2012-01-03
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-03.