“Feb 2012 (G12) Gold Futures to close ON or ABOVE 1800 on 30 Dec 2011” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-16; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• gwern estimated 60% on 2011-08-16
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=744901 55%” on 2011-08-16
• red_goose estimated 80% and said “The US economy is worsening and China and India even if they drop, won’t be as bad as the US is now.” on 2011-08-19
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 0% on 2011-12-26
• gwern said “expired as no; marking wrong” on 2011-12-31
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-31.