“Dow Jones to close ON or ABOVE 10750 on 31 Aug 2011” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-16; known on 2011-09-01; judged right by Serge on 2011-09-01.

• gwern estimated 85% on 2011-08-16
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=750884 92.3%” on 2011-08-16
• gwern said “have to drop >730 points or so which… is actually kind of possible given market volatility” on 2011-08-16
• Sandra Åhlén estimated 60% on 2011-08-21
• Serge estimated 65% on 2011-09-01
• Serge   judged this prediction right on 2011-09-01.