“Feb 2012 (G12) Gold Futures to close ON or ABOVE 1700 on 30 Dec 2011” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-01.

• gwern estimated 90% on 2011-08-16
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=744899 90%” on 2011-08-16
• mat33 estimated 75% on 2011-10-13
• faws   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-01.