Google will sell all hardware developing and producing parts of Motorola Mobile before 1. Jan 2012

Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2011-08-16; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• Emanuel Rylke estimated 65% on 2011-08-16
• gwern estimated 50% and said “not entirely sure what would count as an announcement or anything” on 2011-08-16
• Emanuel Rylke changed the deadline from “on 2011-12-31” and changed their prediction from “Google will (announce to) sell the hardware related parts of Motorola Mobile before 1. Jan 2012” on 2011-08-16
• Emanuel Rylke estimated 58% and said “you’re right the prediction was a bit blurry” on 2011-08-16
• scav estimated 10% and said “Seems a bit quick to turn around the acquisition and re-sale. Also, my guess is that at least part of the hardware development resources could be re-purposed.” on 2011-08-24
• Laurent Bossavit estimated 10% on 2011-09-05
• Laurent Bossavit estimated 5% on 2011-11-22
• Anubhav said “‘All hardware producing parts’? Are they sharply delineated from the other divisions of the company? What if only 99% of them are sold? ” on 2011-11-22
• Laurent Bossavit estimated 0% and said “The acquisition has been put on hold, and since you can’t sell what you don’t own, this goes down to epsilon.” on 2011-12-14
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-31.