Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030

Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by Porejide on 2011-08-25.

• Alexander Kruel estimated 10% on 2011-08-17
• JoshuaZ estimated 16% on 2011-08-17
• gwern estimated 15% and said “see also http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2818” on 2011-08-17
• PseudonymousUser estimated 72% on 2011-08-17
• Jach estimated 30% on 2011-08-18
• Alexander Kruel estimated 15% and said “IBM is combining principles from nanoscience, neuroscience, and supercomputing as part of a multi-year cognitive computing initiative: http://www.kurzweilai.net/ibm-unveils-cognitive-computing-chips-combining-digital-neurons-and-synapses” on 2011-08-18
• fergus estimated 10% on 2011-08-19
• Porejide   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-08-25.
• Porejide   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-08-25.
• Porejide estimated 5% and said “I was confused, please ignore the right/wrong” on 2011-08-25
• Gedusa estimated 25% on 2011-09-14
• Will Newsome estimated 45% on 2011-09-14
• Will Newsome said “But… but… probabilities aren’t the… oh fuck it.” on 2011-09-14
• JoshuaZ said “Will, what do you mean? ” on 2011-09-15
• Will Newsome said “Wub, wub wub anthropics wub, wub wub-wub, feeling guility wub, about using a formalism where we know that it’s a rather lossy approximation, wub wub, since Bayesianism breaks down around singularities. — DJ Anthropik Confusion” on 2011-09-17
• roxton estimated 5% on 2011-09-19
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 10% on 2011-10-25
• lavalamp estimated 17% on 2011-11-10
• Pablo estimated 20% on 2012-09-29
• Malgidus estimated 30% on 2013-03-27
• themusicgod1 estimated 92% on 2016-05-09
• themusicgod1 estimated 68% on 2016-10-09
• pranomostro estimated 14% on 2019-01-03
• Baeboo estimated 12% on 2019-01-04