Syrian president Bashar al-Assad will lose control over his country in 2011.

Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• Alexander Kruel estimated 65% on 2011-08-17
• gwern estimated 40% on 2011-08-17
• JoshuaZ estimated 45% on 2011-08-17
• Sandra Åhlén estimated 45% on 2011-08-21
• Jach estimated 45% on 2011-08-24
• roxton estimated 35% on 2011-09-19
• chemotaxis101 estimated 30% on 2011-11-05
• gwern said “still suppressing protesters and in charge, as far as I can tell. marking wrong.” on 2011-12-31
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-31.