The Hobbit Part 1 will gross more on its opening weekend than LotR: Return of the King

Created by Jach on 2011-08-18; known on 2012-12-16; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-16.

• Jach estimated 80% on 2011-08-18
• Jach said “Only needs to beat 41 http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/records/weekend1.php” on 2011-08-18
• gwern estimated 50% and said “a total gross of 124m USD is pretty impressive” on 2011-08-18
• red_goose   judged this prediction right on 2011-08-19.
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-08-21.
• Sandra Åhlén estimated 55% on 2011-08-21
• Qiaochu estimated 90% and said “Intrade has a 46.5% chance that The Hobbit will gross over $120 million (http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=760421). ” on 2012-11-15
• RandomThinker estimated 55% and said “Skyfall at 80m. Hobbit can do 50% better as a more kid friendly movie” on 2012-11-15
• alecbrooks estimated 60% and said “Each film in the original series did better than the previous film; 4 films in 2012 already beat “Return of the King.”” on 2012-11-17
• Qiaochu estimated 95% and said “Updating on http://www.avclub.com/articles/the-colbert-report-to-spend-an-entire-week-talking,89289/.” on 2012-11-30
• Mathir25 estimated 90% on 2012-12-06
• RandomThinker said “I think they already hit inNews is positive so far. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2248960/The-Hobbit-smashes-records-opening-weekend-biggest-Christmas-film-time.html” on 2012-12-16
• RandomThinker said “Actually it already hit 84.8m domestic vs. 72m for LOTR:ROK. http://blogs.wsj.com/speakeasy/2012/12/16/the-hobbit-tops-the-weekend-box-office/” on 2012-12-16
• RandomThinker said “It’s also at 141m worldwide, so beat ROK there too. http://www.hypable.com/2012/12/16/weekend-box-office-the-hobbit-an-unexpected-journey-has-best-december-opening-ever/” on 2012-12-16
• RandomThinker   judged this prediction right on 2012-12-16.