The James Webb Telescope will launch successfully by the end of 2015

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-18; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

• JoshuaZ estimated 30% on 2011-08-18
• gwern estimated 20% and said “launch in 2014: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1796” on 2011-08-18
• gwern said “‘As of 2011, the mission is under review for cancellation by the United States Congress.’” on 2011-08-18
• gwern said “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Webb_Telescope scheduled for Oct 2018” on 2016-01-01
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-01.