The James Webb Telescope will launch successfully by the end of 2019

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

• JoshuaZ estimated 58% on 2011-08-18
• gwern estimated 40% and said “are you including the risk of cancellation?” on 2011-08-18
• JoshuaZ said “Yes. The main item against this is the possibility of cancelation. If it isn’t canceled 2018 or 2019 launch seems very likely. ” on 2011-08-18
• JoshuaZ changed the deadline from “on 2012-01-01” on 2012-01-01
• themusicgod1 estimated 53% on 2016-10-09
• pranomostro estimated 20% and said “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Webb_Space_Telescope” on 2018-12-19
• pranomostro estimated 5% on 2018-12-19
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.