Google+ will revoke its ban on pseudonymous accounts within a year.

Created by gwern on 2011-08-20; known on 2012-08-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-20.

• gwern estimated 10% on 2011-08-20
• PseudonymousUser estimated 33% on 2011-08-20
• JoshuaZ estimated 45% on 2011-08-20
• gwern estimated 30% and said “updating based on apparent massive internal dissension: https://plus.google.com/u/0/110295984969329522620/posts/ExKJZgBAYxM” on 2011-08-20
• Grognor estimated 25% on 2011-12-06
• malefizer estimated 10% on 2012-07-26
• RandomThinker estimated 25% and said “Mistakes take a long time to be admitted; especially those where you chase fashion” on 2012-07-26
• clemux estimated 10% on 2012-08-06
• JoshuaZ estimated 2% and said “Looking unlikely to happen within the next few days. ” on 2012-08-06
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 1% on 2012-08-17
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-08-20.