Google+ will revoke its ban on pseudonymous accounts within a year, due to SDr's petition campaign.

Created by gwern on 2011-08-20; known on 2012-08-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-20.

• gwern estimated 0% on 2011-08-20
• gwern said “without the last clause, 10%: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/3120” on 2011-08-20
• JoshuaZ said “How do you tell if it was due to the petition campaign? Google is unlikely to say precisely why they made the change if they do. And if they do change it is possible the petition will be one of a host of things that impacts their decision. ” on 2011-08-20
• gwern said “well, that’s part of the problem and why I rank this so low. official statements confirming a policy change may also be specific about why they did it, though, so it is possible for this to come true…” on 2011-08-20
• JoshuaZ estimated 2% on 2011-08-20
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 0% on 2012-08-17
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-08-20.