“In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones” —Marc Andreessen

Created by gwern on 2011-08-20; known on 2021-08-20; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2021-08-20.

• gwern estimated 80% on 2011-08-20
• gwern said “http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903480904576512250915629460.html” on 2011-08-20
• gwern said “current estimates seem to be 4b cellphone users, 1b smartphone by 2013: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903480904576512250915629460.html given moore’s law… 80% may be underconfident, actually” on 2011-08-20
• PseudonymousUser estimated 83% on 2011-08-20
• JoshuaZ estimated 85% on 2011-08-21
• Sandra Åhlén estimated 55% on 2011-08-21
• JoshuaZ estimated 65% and said “One issue that may come up is the blurring line between different types of technology. The line between small computer and smart phone may not be clear in 10 years. This thought is making me downgrade my confidence. ” on 2011-08-21
• anonym estimated 60% on 2011-08-23
• Konkvistador estimated 90% on 2011-08-30
• Anubhav estimated 80% and said “Not sure I understand Joshua’s concerns. Easy way to fix what I think he meant: Count handheld computers as smartphones.” on 2011-12-21
• themusicgod1 estimated 84% and said “6b with cellphones, 1b+ smartphones sold/year 2013 was one upgrade cycle away from this happening. http://newsfeed.time.com/2013/03/25/more-people-have-cell-phones-than-toilets-u-n-study-shows/” on 2016-10-09
• pranomostro estimated 90% on 2019-01-03
• amadeu estimated 40% on 2019-04-07
• NickN estimated 90% on 2020-08-22
• stepan estimated 100% on 2021-07-26
• Baeboo estimated 99% on 2021-07-26
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction right on 2021-08-20.