Nokia's share price will fall by 50% in the next two years

Created by Michael Stevens on 2011-08-22; known on 2013-08-22; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-06-05.

• Michael Stevens estimated 75% on 2011-08-22
• gwern estimated 55% and said “google says currently at $5.81 a share, so judging correct at <$2.91 a share.” on 2011-08-22
• RandomThinker estimated 15% and said “Nokia’s going up. The windows phones are going to outperform.” on 2012-04-11
• gwern said “current: $5.32 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=NOK” on 2012-04-17
• RandomThinker said “@gwern isn’t the current price 4.07, instead of 5-something? Still far away from 50% though.” on 2012-04-17
• gwern said “er. I thought it was. I wonder what I was looking at, then” on 2012-04-18
• RandomThinker said “Hmm NOK at $2.61 a share so looks like this came to pass” on 2012-06-05
• RandomThinker said “Fast fall from 4-17 until 6-1!” on 2012-06-05
• RandomThinker   judged this prediction right on 2012-06-05.