“USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran by 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• gwern estimated 6% on 2011-08-24
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=716708 7.9%” on 2011-08-24
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-01.